I have just returned from my second visit to Target Field (the other was Friday), and I think I have officially jumped on the sell bandwagon. I'm still disappointed that the Twins didn't take the rumors of trading Cuddyer to the Giants more seriously. The Twins have a backlog of outfielders/DH/first basemen, and I think Trevor Plouffe is for real. Similarly, Kubel could be moved without much harm to the team, as he is basically a slightly better fielding version of Jim Thome. Both of their contracts come up at the end of the year, so getting some value for them now will help the team long term. If the right offer comes for Kevin Slowey, that move should also happen.
The best case scenario is that the Twins heroically win the division and bomb out in the playoffs. We've all seen this script. I have very fond memories of the 2006 regular season, but I don't believe that is worth potentially further sacrificing the farm teams for a post-season flame-out. 1987 isn't happening again as much as we all would like it to. The Twins minor-league system has already slipped some, and a new batch of prospects could greatly improve things. AAA win-loss records aren't perfect indicator of the talent level of a system, or of the AAA squad, but the Rochester Red Wings haven't had a winning season since XXXX. With the exception of core pieces like Mauer, Mourneau, Valencia, and (yes, I'm on that bandwagon) Revere, the Twins should listen to offers for basically anyone. This team has sustained enough injuries that I am not certain trading away a few pieces would greatly reduce the chances of a division championship, but the long-term value from additional prospects could improve the chances of the ultimate goal in future years.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Bill Smith Hates The Twins
If you don't know who Bill Smith is, you probably won't care enough to continue reading this.
I'm not going to list all of the asinine moves that Bill Smith has made since he took over for the (soon to be sainted) Terry Ryan. The Johan Santana trade and the Delmon Young trade stand out as unmitigated disasters. Today, I intend to rant about the Matt Capps trade. The extent of Joe Mauer's injuries this year were unexpected, but even in the absolute best case scenario, Joe Mauer is going to catch 140 games. 110-130 is more likely. Going into the season with the only other option being a pair of Mendoza-quality hitters seems... stupid. Asinine even.
Part of my level of hatred for the Matt Capps deal is that I have watched him suck for three teams. In 2006, I moved to Pittsburgh. The following summer, Capps started closing for the Pirates. In a word, he sucked. Even when he didn't completely suck, he wasn't great. At best, he was an average closer who couldn't miss bats. I'm pretty sure I saw the last remaining Pirates fan have a heart attack watching Matt Capps attempt to close out a game. He had a terrible year in 2009, and the Pirates said 'don't bother coming back, we don't want you'. And they got precisely nothing in return. A reasonable estimate of Matt Capps worth. Around this time, I got a new fellowship and moved to Washington, DC. Low and behold, so did Matt Capps! I could continue watching him suck... on basic cable. I have never been a fan of either team, but I had--and have--sympathy for fans of both franchises. Watching Matt Capps stomp on those fans' hopes and dreams was never fun. Of course, Bill Smith had to turn sympathy into misery by trading away the best Twins catching prospect, and good trade bait, for said reliever.
Quick aside: with rare exceptions, relievers are hit or miss in any given year. The Twins have, laudably, been loathe to give relievers long term deals for exactly this reason (JC Romero ring a bell to anyone?). However, having a guy on the staff that has reasonable numbers to come in for $1-3 million and potentially suck or potentially not suck can often be a good deal. Washington overpaid for Capps a little ($3.5), but I get it. In fact, if the Twins signed Capps as a free agent and were paying him $3.5, I would be patting Bill Smith on the back.
Of course, that is not what happened. Bill Smith gave up the best prospect (at the time) in the Twins system, Wilson Ramos. He has a .698 OPS while playing passable defense as a catcher. For perspective, two data points: average catcher OPS this decade .660. Twins catchers OPS this year .512. There exist formulae to quantify what a .186 difference in OPS is worth, but I'm too drunk to find it right now.
Let us not forget that Wilson Ramos is not the only player plying his trade outside of the North Star State because Capps is on the roster. JJ Hardy also had to be cleared off the payroll for Matt Capps bloated $7.1 million salary. Let us compare JJ Hardy this year to Alexi Casilla this year*. JJ Hardy: 52 games .886 OPS. Alexi Casilla: 72 games .664 OPS. Even with the injury, JJ Hardy has been much, much more productive at the plate and has also provide quality defense at short stop. We are not going to mention how the player the twins 'traded' JJ Hardy for, Jim Hoey, has provided the team with negative value.
Back to my basic point: Bill Smith hates the Twins. One of Bill Smith's first moves was to trade away Johan Santana to the Mets. That trade looked terrible for a couple of years. By some accident, the trade ended up not looking terrible for a minute last year because the Twins ended up with Jon Rauch and JJ Hardy because of that deal. Trading for Matt Capps reversed all of that in a single player. Matt Capps replaced Jon Rauch while giving basically the same numbers (102 ERA+ v. 108 ERA+) with a much larger salary ($3.5 v $7.1) which pushed one of the best shortstops in the game out the door. Apparently, in spite of himself, Bill Smith managed to get some value out of a trade from his first year. This had to be rectified. I think Bill Smith is doing a good job running one of the most excellent organizations in all of sports straight into the ground.
* Whether or not Nishioka would have otherwise been acquired is up for debate, and he hasn't played in enough games to make any kind of comparison.
I'm not going to list all of the asinine moves that Bill Smith has made since he took over for the (soon to be sainted) Terry Ryan. The Johan Santana trade and the Delmon Young trade stand out as unmitigated disasters. Today, I intend to rant about the Matt Capps trade. The extent of Joe Mauer's injuries this year were unexpected, but even in the absolute best case scenario, Joe Mauer is going to catch 140 games. 110-130 is more likely. Going into the season with the only other option being a pair of Mendoza-quality hitters seems... stupid. Asinine even.
Part of my level of hatred for the Matt Capps deal is that I have watched him suck for three teams. In 2006, I moved to Pittsburgh. The following summer, Capps started closing for the Pirates. In a word, he sucked. Even when he didn't completely suck, he wasn't great. At best, he was an average closer who couldn't miss bats. I'm pretty sure I saw the last remaining Pirates fan have a heart attack watching Matt Capps attempt to close out a game. He had a terrible year in 2009, and the Pirates said 'don't bother coming back, we don't want you'. And they got precisely nothing in return. A reasonable estimate of Matt Capps worth. Around this time, I got a new fellowship and moved to Washington, DC. Low and behold, so did Matt Capps! I could continue watching him suck... on basic cable. I have never been a fan of either team, but I had--and have--sympathy for fans of both franchises. Watching Matt Capps stomp on those fans' hopes and dreams was never fun. Of course, Bill Smith had to turn sympathy into misery by trading away the best Twins catching prospect, and good trade bait, for said reliever.
Quick aside: with rare exceptions, relievers are hit or miss in any given year. The Twins have, laudably, been loathe to give relievers long term deals for exactly this reason (JC Romero ring a bell to anyone?). However, having a guy on the staff that has reasonable numbers to come in for $1-3 million and potentially suck or potentially not suck can often be a good deal. Washington overpaid for Capps a little ($3.5), but I get it. In fact, if the Twins signed Capps as a free agent and were paying him $3.5, I would be patting Bill Smith on the back.
Of course, that is not what happened. Bill Smith gave up the best prospect (at the time) in the Twins system, Wilson Ramos. He has a .698 OPS while playing passable defense as a catcher. For perspective, two data points: average catcher OPS this decade .660. Twins catchers OPS this year .512. There exist formulae to quantify what a .186 difference in OPS is worth, but I'm too drunk to find it right now.
Let us not forget that Wilson Ramos is not the only player plying his trade outside of the North Star State because Capps is on the roster. JJ Hardy also had to be cleared off the payroll for Matt Capps bloated $7.1 million salary. Let us compare JJ Hardy this year to Alexi Casilla this year*. JJ Hardy: 52 games .886 OPS. Alexi Casilla: 72 games .664 OPS. Even with the injury, JJ Hardy has been much, much more productive at the plate and has also provide quality defense at short stop. We are not going to mention how the player the twins 'traded' JJ Hardy for, Jim Hoey, has provided the team with negative value.
Back to my basic point: Bill Smith hates the Twins. One of Bill Smith's first moves was to trade away Johan Santana to the Mets. That trade looked terrible for a couple of years. By some accident, the trade ended up not looking terrible for a minute last year because the Twins ended up with Jon Rauch and JJ Hardy because of that deal. Trading for Matt Capps reversed all of that in a single player. Matt Capps replaced Jon Rauch while giving basically the same numbers (102 ERA+ v. 108 ERA+) with a much larger salary ($3.5 v $7.1) which pushed one of the best shortstops in the game out the door. Apparently, in spite of himself, Bill Smith managed to get some value out of a trade from his first year. This had to be rectified. I think Bill Smith is doing a good job running one of the most excellent organizations in all of sports straight into the ground.
* Whether or not Nishioka would have otherwise been acquired is up for debate, and he hasn't played in enough games to make any kind of comparison.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Hello All
I'm giving blogging a go once again, mostly because I like ranting about things and fixing other people's abuses of math/statistics. I wish I had something insightful and daring to write here as an introduction, but alas, blogging for the sake of procrastination is an end in itself.
And, for no particular reason, a graph:
Source here.
Oh, and expect some Python evangelism. Really, someone should start a religion based on Python. I'd join.
Also, Minnesota sports.
And, for no particular reason, a graph:
Source here.
Oh, and expect some Python evangelism. Really, someone should start a religion based on Python. I'd join.
Also, Minnesota sports.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
An Original Post
Lest you be concerned that I have become unlazy, this post is simply a call for other people to do work for me.
There is a lot of talk about when/how/if/maybe/when China will overtake the US in terms of science output. However, almost all of the talk I have read is either panicked hyperbole (1 billion people!!!) or wanton conjecture. It should be possible to take into consideration objective factors and make some educated predictions. The obvious source I immediately turned to was 'Soccernomics'.* The book attempts to predict performance at the World Cup by three factors:
Population
GDP
Experience
It seems to me that those factors should do a pretty good job of explaining the variance in scientific output assuming 'Experience' was defined in some reasonable way, such as percentage of population with STEM PhD's. A factor related to personal freedom should be added as scientists with more freedom would likely be able to do better work. My first suggestion for such a factor is the 'Press Freedom Index' from Reporters without borders. Just to make our hypothetical unlazy friend's life harder, that person will have to take into account any correlations between the freedom index used and GDP.
Now, with such a model in hand, it would be relatively simple to look at economic predictions for three objective variables to see how long (if/when/maybe) it will take for Chinese science to overtake US science. If the multicollinearity** between GDP and the freedom index is properly handled, one could even compare the relative predicted science output between the States and China given multiple levels of Chinese freedom.
* I link the NYTimes blog post as I have not actually read the book, nor do I intend to.
** Yes, I did spend 5-10 minutes sifting through google results to find that word.
There is a lot of talk about when/how/if/maybe/when China will overtake the US in terms of science output. However, almost all of the talk I have read is either panicked hyperbole (1 billion people!!!) or wanton conjecture. It should be possible to take into consideration objective factors and make some educated predictions. The obvious source I immediately turned to was 'Soccernomics'.* The book attempts to predict performance at the World Cup by three factors:
Population
GDP
Experience
It seems to me that those factors should do a pretty good job of explaining the variance in scientific output assuming 'Experience' was defined in some reasonable way, such as percentage of population with STEM PhD's. A factor related to personal freedom should be added as scientists with more freedom would likely be able to do better work. My first suggestion for such a factor is the 'Press Freedom Index' from Reporters without borders. Just to make our hypothetical unlazy friend's life harder, that person will have to take into account any correlations between the freedom index used and GDP.
Now, with such a model in hand, it would be relatively simple to look at economic predictions for three objective variables to see how long (if/when/maybe) it will take for Chinese science to overtake US science. If the multicollinearity** between GDP and the freedom index is properly handled, one could even compare the relative predicted science output between the States and China given multiple levels of Chinese freedom.
* I link the NYTimes blog post as I have not actually read the book, nor do I intend to.
** Yes, I did spend 5-10 minutes sifting through google results to find that word.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Liberal Media Watch!
CBS, an admitted member of the liberal media elite trying to destroy America (I mean, seriously, the hired Dan Rather!), is now trying to destroy the beloved American institution of the Super Bowl by injecting their dirty, liberal politics!
The bastards have accepted an anti-abortion ad from far left Christian group Focus on the Family while rejecting the conservative family value of being able to see dudes kiss on tv. What is this country coming to?
The bastards have accepted an anti-abortion ad from far left Christian group Focus on the Family while rejecting the conservative family value of being able to see dudes kiss on tv. What is this country coming to?
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Nancy Pelosi = Badass Pt 2
Here is a nice quote from Madam Speaker:
For those of you keeping score at home, the House has passed health care reform, financial reform, and cap and trade. That would be an incredibly productive year had all of the bills gone into law. Just a reminder that all of government isn't fucked; only the Senate is completely and utterly fucked.
You go through the gate. If the gate’s closed, you go over the fence. If the fence is too high, we’ll pole-vault in. If that doesn’t work, we’ll parachute in. But we’re going to get health care reform passed for the American people.
For those of you keeping score at home, the House has passed health care reform, financial reform, and cap and trade. That would be an incredibly productive year had all of the bills gone into law. Just a reminder that all of government isn't fucked; only the Senate is completely and utterly fucked.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Nancy Pelosi = Badass
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