An Original Post

Lest you be concerned that I have become unlazy, this post is simply a call for other people to do work for me.

There is a lot of talk about when/how/if/maybe/when China will overtake the US in terms of science output. However, almost all of the talk I have read is either panicked hyperbole (1 billion people!!!) or wanton conjecture. It should be possible to take into consideration objective factors and make some educated predictions. The obvious source I immediately turned to was 'Soccernomics'.* The book attempts to predict performance at the World Cup by three factors:

Population
GDP
Experience

It seems to me that those factors should do a pretty good job of explaining the variance in scientific output assuming 'Experience' was defined in some reasonable way, such as percentage of population with STEM PhD's. A factor related to personal freedom should be added as scientists with more freedom would likely be able to do better work. My first suggestion for such a factor is the 'Press Freedom Index' from Reporters without borders. Just to make our hypothetical unlazy friend's life harder, that person will have to take into account any correlations between the freedom index used and GDP.

Now, with such a model in hand, it would be relatively simple to look at economic predictions for three objective variables to see how long (if/when/maybe) it will take for Chinese science to overtake US science. If the multicollinearity** between GDP and the freedom index is properly handled, one could even compare the relative predicted science output between the States and China given multiple levels of Chinese freedom.

* I link the NYTimes blog post as I have not actually read the book, nor do I intend to.

** Yes, I did spend 5-10 minutes sifting through google results to find that word.

Liberal Media Watch!

CBS, an admitted member of the liberal media elite trying to destroy America (I mean, seriously, the hired Dan Rather!), is now trying to destroy the beloved American institution of the Super Bowl by injecting their dirty, liberal politics!

The bastards have accepted an anti-abortion ad from far left Christian group Focus on the Family while rejecting the conservative family value of being able to see dudes kiss on tv. What is this country coming to?

Nancy Pelosi = Badass Pt 2

Here is a nice quote from Madam Speaker:

You go through the gate. If the gate’s closed, you go over the fence. If the fence is too high, we’ll pole-vault in. If that doesn’t work, we’ll parachute in. But we’re going to get health care reform passed for the American people.

For those of you keeping score at home, the House has passed health care reform, financial reform, and cap and trade. That would be an incredibly productive year had all of the bills gone into law. Just a reminder that all of government isn't fucked; only the Senate is completely and utterly fucked.

Nancy Pelosi = Badass

Things are moving forward again... finally. As I have stated to people in person, do not underestimate Nancy Pelosi's ability to whip votes. Short synopses can be found here and here.

Failure of Centrism

Nate Silver outlines how Barack Obama's agenda has been moderate in policy but has not been properly marketed that way leaving:

an unpopular, liberal sheen on a relatively centrist agenda.

Oh, and he uses the word 'fuck' several times. That makes me happy.

Bertrand Russell = Badass

Pharyngula notices a similarity here.

Christopher Hitchens

He states the obvious about Haiti.

Gay Marriage Opponents = Divorcing Heathen!

Numbers don't lie.

Celebration

The Champs celebrate! Cheers to Jordan Schroeder and the rest of the US team!

Fix YouTube

I'm linking a link here, but everyone needs to read Pharyngula. Apparently, religious fundies are shutting down science blogs so that no one can be exposed to the evils of evolution. Read about how to help fix that here.